Talking About Impeachment: If President Trump is impeached should he be reelected in 2020?

On Quora, conservative Mark Watson asks:

If President Trump is impeached should he be reelected in 2020?

And here's my response:

This question is problematic, mostly because the person who posted it doesn’t seem to understand what impeachment is, but partly because the “corroborating” link he provides is to a decidedly biased (in this case, conservative) website.

First, let’s deal with the term “impeachment” shall we, class?

Per Merriam-Webster.com:

Definition of impeach

(Entry 1 of 2)

transitive verb

1: to charge with a crime or misdemeanor, specifically: to charge (a public official) before a competent tribunal with misconduct in office After Andrew Johnson, the first president to be impeached, finished his chaotic and disgraceful administration, Grant was the inevitable successor.— Richard Brookhiser

“Impeach” or “impeachment” does not mean “the automatic removal from office of a public official.” In the context of Presidential politics and American civics, it means the process of charging an individual in high office (in this case, President Donald Trump) with a crime or misdemeanor.

In our system of government, the House of Representatives (the lower chamber of the Congress) holds initial hearings on specific charges. Then there’s a debate on whether to go ahead with the articles of impeachment, then there is a final vote on the motion. If it fails to win enough votes, the motion is removed from the docket and the process ends.

Should enough Representatives vote for impeachment, however, the House adopts the measure and send it to the Senate.

The really tricky part of the process takes place in the upper chamber of Congress, where a trial, which is presided over by Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. During the trial, which is not like a criminal trial but rather (as Wikipedia points out) more like “a civil service termination appeal in terms of the contemplated deprivation.” Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds majority vote, which means that 66 Senators would have to vote “Yes” in order to remove the accused party (in this case, Donald Trump) from the Presidency.

This means that the 46 Democrats in the Senate would need the support of the two independent Senators and 18 (or more) Republicans in order to get a conviction.

Well, considering that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has supported the current President throughout his stormy Administration (his wife. Elaine Chao, after all, has a Cabinet post as Secretary of Transportation), getting 18 (and preferably more) Republican Senators to convict Trump of anything is….difficult to see happening.

This is one of the harsh realities of impeaching a President. It’s a trial, but it is a political exercise, not a purely legal/criminal one. And in the two previous impeachments (Andrew Johnson in the 1860s; Bill Clinton in the late 1990s), the Senate voted to acquit the Chief Executives in question.

(The one time when a President’s fate was sealed as impeachment loomed, Congress didn’t even get a chance to go to a Senate trial. Richard M. Nixon, faced with damning evidence that would likely sway even the staunchest of GOP loyalists in the Senate, resigned from the Presidency effective at noon on August 9, 1974, as a result of the Watergate scandal.)

That’s why Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi was lukewarm on the issue of impeaching the President. The House could vote to impeach; the Democrats have a majority there. But in the all-important phase of a trial, the Senate holds the cards. And unless the Senate Majority Leader can be convinced that Trump committed “high crimes or misdemeanors” and steer the vote toward conviction, the President can be acquitted.

Now, let’s address the second half of the question, i.e. should he be reelected in 2020?

Well, if he’s convicted, it’s “Game Over” for Donald J. Trump. Even if he is tried and found guilty by the Senate and Mike Pence becomes a caretaker President during the run-up to the election, he can’t run again. Pence can’t pardon him for the offense he was charged with in Congress; that would defeat the purpose of impeachment, right? (What Pence could pardon Trump for are any criminal offenses that would be prosecuted in a federal court. but that’s neither here nor there.) A convicted President can’t then announce, “I’m running for re-election!” As I said, it’s game over, no extra lives, no more chances to return to the White House in 2020, or even in 2024.

If he’s not convicted, then Trump can claim victory, say it was just the “Democrat Party” playing unfair political games to usurp his Presidency and run for re-election.

Obviously, the danger here is that high turnout among all voters will decide Trump’s post-impeachment fate if the Senate acquits. Democrats cannot afford to put their trust in “the Force” if some of their voters decide to stay home because their candidate in the primaries lost (as many Bernie Sanders supporters did in ‘16) or if independents don’t swing to the Democratic candidate and either abstain from voting or vote for Trump.

And on the Republican side, fear and loathing of the “left” and “socialists” will galvanize Trump supporters and take them to the polls. Adding “KAGA” fervor to gerrymandered districts, voter suppression of minorities, and the ever-present danger of Russian interference in the 2020 elections, and an impeached Trump might eke out a close re-election win.

Should he be re-elected? If it were up to me, no. Impeachment or no impeachment, I don’t support Trump.

But it’s not up to me. Millions of other Americans will have to ask themselves if Trump deserves another term in office.