And Time Marches On: Tempus Fugit...Again

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Today is Sunday, September 1, 2019. As I write this, it's hot, muggy, and cloudy in my corner of the world. And as Hurricane Dorian churns toward the northern Bahamas as a monster Category Five storm, we Floridians are keeping a wary watch. Most of the forecast tracks are predicting that Dorian will head west for a bit, then turn north and stay just off Florida's East Coast as it makes its destructive way toward Georgia and the Carolinas.

I wish I could say for sure that my area is totally out of the woods; I know that my former hometown of Miami is probably not going to be affected because Dorian's eye is already almost parallel to northern Broward/southern Palm Beach Counties. But if the storm doesn't turn to the north within the next 24-36 hours, its outer bands will affect Central Florida and maybe even the Tampa Bay area in some way.

Per the National Hurricane Center's 11 AM advisory:


 SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from
north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

 A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield
Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

 A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

 A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

 A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

 A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

 A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

 A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

 A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

 A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

 A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

 Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane
Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.8 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest.  On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to move over
Great Abaco and move near or over Grand Bahama Island later tonight
and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east
coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

 Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

 Dorian has grown larger in size. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Ham radio
reports indicate that Hope Town in the Abacos just reported wind
gust to 100 mph.

 The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance planes was 913 mb (26.96 inches).

 Note that all of the advisories cover the Atlantic coast, but the Hurricane Center, in a graf I didn't include here, suggests that residents in other parts of Florida should still pay attention and stay informed.


Even though the weather here is typical for this time of year and we have not experienced severe storms or even stiffer-than-normal winds, Dorian is making an impact where I live. Gas lines were incredibly long Friday afternoon, and Amazon deliveries have been delayed. I was expecting my CD of Across the Stars to arrive yesterday; the latest message on the package tracking page in my Amazon account says "Package delayed in transit."

Other than that...I don't think we'll get anything but glancing blows from Dorian's outer bands, and that's if the hurricane keeps heading in a westerly direction.

Today is also the 80th anniversary of Germany's invasion of Poland. On this date in 1939, after months of near-hysterical anti-Polish propaganda and several "false flag" incidents intended to make Poland look like an aggressor, Adolf Hitler unleashed his armed forces against Germany's eastern neighbor.

Two days later, Great Britain and France declared war on Nazi Germany after Hitler refused to stop the invasion and withdraw his armies from Poland. Thus began the European War, which ultimately morphed into World War II.

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