Random Thoughts for August 31, 2019

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Today is Saturday, August 31, 2019, and this is what's on my mind today:

First, I'm keeping an eye on the progress of Hurricane Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and the first truly major threat to the East Coast of the U.S. As of this afternoon, Dorian is a Category Four hurricane and on its way to becoming a Category Five storm.

Per the National Hurricane Center in Miami:

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 29A

 BULLETIN
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

 ...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS...
LOCATION...26.1N 73.9W
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM E OF GREAT ABACO IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

 None.

 A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

 * Andros Island
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 73.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

 Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

 The minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was
945 mb (27.91 inches).

Although Dorian is a major storm off the east coast of my home state, I'm not as concerned as I  was last night about its effects where I live. It's already almost parallel to West Palm Beach, Florida, and even though that's still east-southeast of the Tampa Bay area, it looks like all of the forecast models now say Dorian will stay offshore when it makes its way north at some point this weekend. A ridge of high pressure just northeast of Dorian's current location is steering its course so that the hurricane makes its turn to the right long before it touches the Florida coast.

We are, of course, doing our best to prepare the house in case Dorian somehow deviates from the forecast track, but I have a good feeling that we'll be all right.

Right now I'm also keeping an eye for my copy of Across the Stars: John Williams & Anne-Sophie Mutter, a new album of Maestro John Williams's themes from several films, including Star Wars and Harry Potter, rearranged especially for German violinist Anne-Sophie Mutter. It's due in today, but Amazon has not updated its tracking data since last night. Per Amazon, the CD is still scheduled to arrive before 9 PM, but with all the worries about Dorian, we'll see when it gets here.

Anyway, that's about it for now. I'm a bit tired and not exactly at my best, so I'll sign off until tomorrow.



















































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