Talking About War and Peace: Why would a war with Iran be a terrible idea?

Why would a war with Iran be a terrible idea?

Few veterans cherish a romantic remembrance of war. War is awful. When nations seek to settle their differences by force of arms a million tragedies ensue. Nothing, not the valor with which it is fought nor the nobility of the cause it serves, can glorify war. War is wretched beyond description, and only a fool or a fraud could sentimentalize its cruel reality. ~John McCain, 1999

Why do I think that a war with Iran is a terrible idea?

Other than the fact that Iran, aka the Islamic Republic of Iran, has not directly attacked the United States of America or its military forces in the Persian Gulf, a war with the second-largest country in the Middle East is a terrible idea because it will be extremely destructive, expensive (both in economic and human terms), and may have unwanted consequences for the U.S. and the world in general.

Many Americans who say the opposite, i.e. that a war with Iran is not only a good idea but necessary to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear arsenal, have never seen combat up close and personal, much less served in the armed forces with an intent to go into a war zone. The current President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, avoided being drafted through different means (college deferments, high draft number, and a questionable medical diagnosis that claimed Trump suffered from “bone spurs.”

Even more relevant, John Bolton, the man Trump relies on for advice on weighty issues such as war and peace, also avoided being sent to Vietnam (even though he was a vocal supporter of that war) by virtue of his draft number (185) at a time when draftees were chosen by a birthday-based lottery system. Knowing that conscripts were more likely to be sent to fight in Southeast Asia than Reservists or National Guard personnel, Bolton enlisted in the Maryland Army National Guard shortly before graduating from Yale in 1970 instead of taking his chances with the draft. He underwent training for 18 weeks at an Army base in Louisiana, did the bulk of his time in the Army in the National Guard (a billet that ensured he would not be sent to Vietnam), then completed his six-year enlistment by staying in the Army Reserve till 1976.

Years later, Bolton wrote in the Yale Class of 1970’s 25th Reunion book: "I confess I had no desire to die in a Southeast Asian rice paddy. I considered the war in Vietnam already lost."

There is a derogatory term used to describe individuals who beat the war drums constantly despite never seen the realities of war themselves: chickenhawks.

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron. ~Dwight D. Eisenhower, speech, American Society of Newspaper Editors, 16 April 1953

A U.S.-led war against Iran will be a blunder of monumental proportions, far worse than the fiasco of Operation Iraqi Freedom. In that quagmire, the U.S. alone lost 4,815 military personnel over eight years, as well as 32,252 wounded). Other coalition allies suffered casualties as well, but none bore the brunt of the Iraq misadventure as our post-Saddam Iraqi security allies. After the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, Iraqi military and police forces lost over 25,000 killed in action (KIA), including 12,000 policemen killed 2003–2005. Add to that the toll in civilian casualties, and you have anywhere between 300,000 to 900,000 deaths as a result of the war.

That, right there, should be the discussion-ending reason: the toll in human lives in a war between the U.S. and Iran will be high, perhaps even higher, than the war in Iraq.

But it doesn’t end there. Starting a war is like throwing a rock into the middle of a lake or pond: it creates a ripple effect of consequences, most of them incredibly negative.

Consider:

• Oil prices will rise to levels not seen since the 1979 energy crisis brought on by the faceoff between Washington and Iran over the takeover of the American embassy in Tehran and the resulting hostage crisis
• Iran will mine the Strait of Hormuz, a vital strategic passage through which all of the tanker traffic to the Persian Gulf oil ports must pass
• As a result, the U.S. economy, already in a fragile state due to Trump’s trade war with China, will plummet along with the stock market, causing a recession far worse than the one from 2007–08
• Markets around the world will likewise plunge along with the U.S. economy, causing another worldwide depression. Chaos ensues
• Thousands of Shiite Muslims would rally to Iran’s cause and engage in terrorist activities against the U.S. and its allies
• Although it is likely that U.S. military forces would defeat the Iranian military in conventional battles, it would require a larger expeditionary force than that sent to Iraq 16 years ago by the George W. Bush Administration
• As in Iraq, the initial invasion might be successful but bloodier, only to segue into a long counterinsurgency campaign that will last until American public opinion turns against U.S. involvement in Iran and demands a withdrawal
• Iran’s influence in the region would be strengthened, and the U.S. would lose support in the Middle East and around the world

All wars are follies, very expensive and very mischievous ones. In my opinion, there never was a good war or a bad peace. When will mankind be convinced and agree to settle their difficulties by arbitration? ~Benjamin Franklin